Although this matchup features the best and third-best teams in the AFC, per FPI, the gap between them is vast — 5.4 points on a neutral field.

Here’s how good the Patriots are: Although FPI thinks they will win this game by 9.4 points, it also thinks this is their second-toughest game at Gillette Stadium this season. Only the Falcons’ visit in Week 7 projects as a bigger challenge.

And, of course, it’s hard to forget FPI’s lofty general expectations for New England this season. The Patriots have a 50.7 percent chance to play in the Super Bowl and a 33.2 percent chance to win said Super Bowl. All without having played a game.

If there’s one place the Chiefs have an edge, it’s on special teams, where Tyreek Hill is always a threat.
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That mold does not include the Jets’ starting quarterback, Josh McCown. The 38-year-old NFL veteran is simply extending his career in an offense with few playmakers. McCown has won only two games in the last 22 he has started, and going against the Bills’ solid front seven may make getting win No. 3 difficult.

If the Jets are to win, McCown needs to use his leadership and savvy to take advantage of the inexperienced secondary of the Bills. Rookie cornerback Tre’Davious White will be put to the test early and often. The Bills still haven’t decided which player will start at the opposite cornerback position, but former Ram E.J. Gaines looks to be the front-runner.
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